For Colorado Rockies fans with low expectations heading into the 2021 offseason, the trade of Nolan Arenado in February dampened enthusiasm even further.
Orchestrating the club’s latest cost-cutting move, the Rockies jettisoned the five-time All Star third baseman to the St. Louis Cardinals for five prospects – Austin Gomber, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, Elehuris Montero, and Jake Sommers. On the eve of Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, none of the prospects are expected to crack the Rockies’ starting lineup, at least for the first half of the season.
As a result, the majority of Colorado sports betting operators widely expect the Rockies to win fewer than 65 games during the 2021 regular season. If the Rockies finish with only 63 wins on the campaign, the club will set a franchise record for fewest wins over a 162-game regular season.
Despite slight fluctuations, most books have held steady on the Rockies’ season-win totals over the last few weeks. The Rockies opened at 64.5 wins at DraftKings, before falling back to 63.5 wins. At William Hill, the Rockies opened at 62.5 in the offseason, but a rush of money on the over pushed the total up to 63.5.
If you are shopping for a favorable line this week, you’ll probably struggle to find any outliers. At least seven prominent books in Colorado have listed the Rockies’ season-win total at 63.5. The total is among the worst of all 30 teams across the league.
Rockies’ season-win totals at top Colorado sportsbooks
- BetMGM 63.5 wins
- BetRivers 63.5 wins
- Circa Sports 64 wins
- DraftKings 63.5 wins
- FanDuel 63.5 wins
- PointsBet 63.5 wins
- SuperBook 63.5 wins
- William Hill 63.5 wins
In order for Colorado to defy expectations, the Rockies’ pitching staff will need to be more consistent in the strike zone. Last season, the Rockies posted a 5.59 ERA, the second-highest in MLB, while finishing with the lowest strikeout total in the league. The Rockies hope to bolster an unproductive bullpen with the acquisition of Robert Stephenson from the Reds, along with the addition of rookies Jordan Sheffield and Ben Bowden. Colorado will open the season without reliever Scott Oberg, who is dealing with a blood clot in his pitching arm.
Starting with the 2nd half of the 2019 season, the Rockies have played 133 games and have a record of 53-80. That's a Win Percentage of 39.8% and would give them a 162 game record of 64-98.
The Rockies' current win total is set at 63.5
— The Sabermetric Skeptic (@SABRSkeptic) March 9, 2021
Since entering the league in 2016, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story has emerged as one of the top power-hitting infielders in MLB with 134 home runs over that span. Story, a two-time All-Star, averaged 36 HRs in 2018 and 2019, before hitting 11 during last year’s shortened season. Story has odds of 20/1 at PointsBet to finish the regular season with the most home runs in MLB. The Rockies did not offer Story a contract extension in the offseason, fueling speculation that he could be on the trade block.
Story’s teammate Charlie Blackmon is arguably one of the top hitters in the league. For a four-year period through 2019, Blackmon finished with at least 180 hits per season. In 2017, Blackmon finished fifth in National League MVP voting, when he hit .331 with 14 triples. Blackmon has odds of 22/1 at PointsBet to lead MLB in hits.
The Rockies are 80/1 at PointsBet to win the NL pennant, 100/1 to win the NL West, and 150/1 to win the World Series. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates (200/1) have higher odds. Another prop from BetMGM gives the Rockies odds of 66/1 to make the playoffs.
"Will the next #Rockies era be defined by players currently with the squad?… Or will it be another wave of young players? Will it feature a new GM or manager?
Could it even see a change in ownership?"
It's all on the table:https://t.co/kibjwikY5Q
— DNVR Rockies (@DNVR_Rockies) March 30, 2021
On Thursday, the Rockies open the season at home against the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw, a three-time NL Cy Young Award winner, is scheduled to start for the Dodgers (-225). The Rockies (+180) will counter with staff ace German Marquez.